Preparing for Conservative power

If and when the removal vans turn up at No 10 Downing Street in May 2010, or possibly sooner, it will signal the end of an extraordinary political era.

In contrast with the turmoil of early 20th century British politics, when administrations collapsed or were ejected with regularity, governing parties change rarely nowadays.

Eighteen years of Tory dominance has been followed by 12 years (so far) of Labour supremacy — or, to put it another way, there have only been two changes of administration in 30 years.

There are not many people in very senior roles who are used to recession budgeting

Senior civil servant, Whitehall

Little wonder the prospect of the Conservatives taking power next year (whatever your allegiance, this has to be seen as the most likely outcome) is sending shivers of anticipation through Whitehall. The predominant mood in the departments is one of excitement, rather than trepidation.

“The changeover will be a lot easier than people suggest,” says one senior civil servant. “It is an enervating, exciting time — you get new people and new challenges. Managing this is a professional challenge.”

Few are expecting anything other than a David Cameron-led government but, given that impartiality remains the watchword of Whitehall, the mandarins have taken the precaution of considering what happens if there is a hung Parliament.

Hung Parliament

For the first time since 1983 serious attention is being paid to the Liberal Democrats, particularly the views of shadow chancellor Vince Cable and leader Nick Clegg, the two most likely to be found cabinet positions should a coalition arise.

It is apparent that many civil servants would welcome a Conservative administration — from a strictly professional point of view. There is little-disguised disquiet among the Sir Humphreys and the Bernards about the way Gordon Brown runs his government and the surprising lack of legislation being driven through Parliament.

Westminster veterans cannot recall a time when so many opposition day debates have been granted because of the government’s light legislative timetable.

The sense of drift was underlined by a recent survey, albeit one published by the Conservatives, which found nearly 8,000 Whitehall staff admitted they were unclear about what they were doing.

“There will be no tears shed if we get a more coherent centre of government. Brown has a dysfunctional way of working and for much of the Labour government there has been clear conflict between No 10 and the Treasury,” says one Whitehall insider.

“Less conflict and tension at the heart of government would be welcome.”

Make sure you present your new permanent secretary with your agenda, otherwise he will present you with his

Michael Heseltine, former Conservative Minister

A Labour detox

Others see the new administration as an opportunity to detoxify some of Labour’s politicisation of the civil service, though those hoping the Tories will curtail the powers of special advisers (SpAds) should remember David Cameron cut his teeth as Norman Lamont’s SpAd in the early 1990s.

But Labour’s scraping of the legislative barrel is mirrored by concerns over the lightness, at the moment, of the Conservatives’ bag of policies. Beyond education and the economy, this is a party wearing size zero clothes.

The view in the civil service is the longer Mr Brown leaves calling the election the better, as it will allow more time for the Tories to flesh out their manifesto.

Where there is clear direction from team Cameron, the civil service has started to react accordingly. The Home Office has not exactly downed tools on ID cards — a scheme which shadow home secretary Chris Grayling has pledged to axe — but those involved on the scheme are said to be operating an unofficial go-slow.

At least the mandarins can plan for one eventuality — there will be cuts. Mr Brown may be in denial about need to row back spending but Whitehall is collectively awake to the necessity of budgets being slashed.

Spending squeeze

The question is not will departmental spending be squeezed, but by how much?

One of the problems is that for the past dozen years the culture of the government and its civil service, from the permanent secretary of the Treasury to directors at any district council, has been one of largesse.

Put simply, they are unaccustomed to trimming budgets. “There are not many people in very senior roles who have done recession budgeting,” one mandarin tells me.

Perhaps alert to this inexperience, shadow chancellor George Osborne has pledged to rewrite civil service contracts to include a legally binding ‘fiduciary responsibility to taxpayers’. Those judged to have failed to spend money prudently will be disciplined or dismissed, Mr Osborne promises.

The shadow chancellor should be under no illusions about how unpopular he is about to make himself.

“In any walk of life if your job security is under threat it affects you badly,” says one former permanent secretary.

Reviewing Thatcher

The Conservative homework at the moment is focused on Margaret Thatcher’s first term, when a deeply disliked prime minister rode the tide of resentment at her merciless spending cuts to win a second and then third election.

Shadow cabinet members have started to hold talks with the permanent secretaries of the departments they hope to run after the election, and it’s is understood that almost all them have now met. Discussions with shadow junior ministers are expected to take place shortly.

One former mandarin, who helped oversee the changes of administration in 1979 and 1997, said these talks are essential for a smooth transition.

“The British way sees the transition take place instantly when the incoming politicians are completely exhausted after campaigning and they immediately have to take important decisions that will determine their administration,” he says.

“The secret of a successful transition is for the permanent civil service to have confidential talks with the candidate party and the more discussions you can have, the better.”

But this Whitehall knight warns that the length of time the Conservatives have spent in opposition, and the lack of government experience of Messrs Cameron and Osborne, will present a challenge.

“What it does mean is that the incoming politicians have much less personal acquaintance with the civil servants and vice versa. When the Conservatives came back in 1979, after having lost in 1974, a good deal of friendship had survived,” he says.

Inexperience

The Tories are acutely aware of their greenness; William Hague and Ken Clarke are the only members of the shadow cabinet to have served in government.

So, for the past 12 months Francis Maude, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, has been drawing up plans to ensure a Conservative government “hits the ground running”. A legislative timetable has already been drawn up, with pride of place given to Michael Gove’s flagship education bill.

The unflappable Mr Maude is aided by Nick Boles, former head of the Policy Exchange thinktank and a close friend of Mr Cameron, who helped Boris Johnson establish the post-Livingstone regime in London’s City Hall.

This experience will be invaluable, not least because of the clanking errors which characterised the early months of Mayor Boris. Within two months, he learned the hard way that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose, as he lost deputies James McGrath and Ray Lewis in a slew of scandal.

The way forward

The Conservatives have also sought advice from the Institute for Government, a nonpartisan organisation which seeks to rectify the lack of training for would-be ministers.

And the grandees have been wheeled out to instruct the infant Conservatives on grown-up government. Michael Heseltine told a recent gathering of the dangers of being bossed around by the Sir Humphreys.

“On day one,” he was reported have said, “make sure you present your new permanent secretary with your agenda, otherwise he will present you with his”.

Of more concern is that a public sector grown fat with the years of Labour riches, and accustomed to a particular style of government, may not wish to co-operate with Tory reforms.

This will be particularly acute at a local level where the Tory dominance of local government could prove problematic. Conservative-run authorities could find themselves at loggerheads with a central government as it pushes through its reforms.

That, though, will be small consolation for a defeated Labour Party.

Jason Beattie is deputy political editor of the Daily Mirror

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