BIRTHS, MINORITY ETHNIC GROUPS, AND POPULATION TRENDS

Coverage England and Wales

Theme Population and Migration

Forty per cent of births in England and Wales occurred outside

marriage in 2001, compared with 30 per cent in 1991, according to

detailed birth statistics published today* by the Office for National

Statistics. Women aged under-25 have the highest proportion of births

outside marriage: nearly 90 per cent of births to teenagers and 63

per cent of births to women aged 20-24.

The report also contains a detailed breakdown statistics on

conceptions in England and Wales in 2000.

Some other key statistics include:

- There were 595,000 live births in 2001 compared with 604,000 in

2000, a decrease of nearly two per cent.

- The average age of women at the birth of their first child has

increased from 25.7 in 1991 to 27.1 in 2001.

- The total fertility rate was 1.64 children per woman of

childbearing age, the lowest ever recorded since this annual

measure began in 1924. This varied considerably across the regions

of England and Wales, from a low of 1.58 in the North East to a

high of 1.74 in the West Midlands. (See Background Note 4).

- The number of multiple births increased by 22 per cent over the

past ten years. In 2001 there were 14.8 multiple maternities per

1,000 women giving birth compared with a rate of 12.1 in 1991.

Married women are more likely to have a multiple birth than

unmarried women (a rate of 16.6 multiple maternities per 1,000

married women giving birth compared with 12.1 for unmarried women).

*Birth Statistics, England and Wales, 2001

Series FM1 No.30

Available free on the National Statistics website:

www.statistics.gov.uk/products/p5768.asp

- The highest teenage birth rates were in the North East and Wales,

both with 35.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, compared with a

low of 22.1 per 1,000 in the South East.

- There was considerable variation in the outcome of conceptions

across the regions. In London, 32.5 per cent of conceptions were

terminated by abortion, compared with a low of 19.1 per cent in the

East.

- In 2000, the under-18 conception rate in England and Wales was 43.8

conceptions per 1,000 women aged 15-17, three per cent lower than

in 1999. Fifty-six per cent of conceptions to under-18s in 2000 led

to a maternity.

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. An annual update summarising recent trends in births in 2001 and

conceptions in 2000 is contained in Population Trends 110 (Winter

2002) published on 12 December 2002.

2. Headline statistics on conceptions in 2000 were published in

February 2002 in Health Statistics Quarterly 13. Headline statistics

on births in 2001 appeared in Population Trends 108 published in June

2002.

3. Rates for 2001 were calculated using the final population

estimates for 2001, based on the 2001 Census. Figures for 1990 to

2000 used interim revised population estimates. Final revised

population estimates for 1982 to 2000 will be available in the spring

of 2003.

4. The total fertility rate is the sum of the age-specific fertility

rates expressed per woman. It may be interpreted as the number of

children that would be born to a woman if the current age-specific

patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It

can be used to examine changes in fertility over time and between

populations by removing the effect of different age distributions.

5. Figures for multiple maternities include maternities where one or

more of the babies were still born.

6. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are

available from the press office.

7. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards

set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo

regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer

needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

MINORITY ETHNIC GROUPS IN THE UK

Coverage United Kingdom

Theme Social and welfare

A statistical picture of minority ethnic groups in the United Kingdom

is drawn by a new report from the Office for National Statistics.

Published today on the National Statistics website only, Social Focus in Brief: Ethnicity, 2002looks at

the characteristics and circumstances of the UK's minority ethnic

groups.

The data in this report are drawn from Annual Local Area Labour Force

Survey, British Crime Survey, Family Resources Survey, Health Survey

for England, Labour Force Survey and the Youth Cohort Study. 2001

Census results estimating the numbers and demographic characteristics

and geographical spread of the minority ethnic population will be

published starting February 2003. This report will be updated with

these data when available.

Population

- The size of the minority ethnic population was 4.5 million in

2001/02 or 7.6 per cent of the total population of the United

Kingdom. Indians were the largest minority group, followed by

Pakistanis, Black Caribbeans, Black Africans, and those of Mixed

ethnic backgrounds.

- Minority ethnic groups have a younger age structure than the White

population. In 2001/02 the Mixed group had the youngest age

structure - more than half (55 per cent) were under the age of 16.

The White group had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and

over at 16 per cent.

- In England people from minority ethnic groups made up 9 per cent of

the total population in 2001/02 compared with only 2 per cent in

both Scotland and Wales. Nearly half (48 per cent) of the total

minority ethnic population lived in the London region, where they

comprised 29 per cent of all residents.

- Asian households tend to be larger than those from other ethnic

groups. In spring 2002, Bangladeshi households were the largest

with an average of 4.7 people, followed by Pakistanis (4.2 people),

and Indians (3.3 people).

- In spring 2002, the proportion of lone parent families was highest

among the Mixed group, at 61 per cent of all families with

dependent children, followed by Black Caribbeans (54 per cent).

Labour market

- People in minority ethnic groups in the UK had higher unemployment

rates than White people in 2001/02. Bangladeshi men and women had

the highest unemployment rates at 20 per cent and 24 per cent

respectively.

- In 2001/02 just over 40 per cent of Bangladeshi men aged under 25

were unemployed compared with 12 per cent of young White men.

- People from Pakistani and Chinese groups are far more likely to be

self-employed than those in other groups. Around one-fifth of

Pakistani (22 per cent) and Chinese (19 per cent) people in

employment were self-employed in 2001/02. This compares with only

one in ten White people and less than one in ten Black people.

Income

- In 2000/01 Pakistani and Bangladeshi households in Great Britain

were more reliant than other groups on social security benefits -

which made up nearly a fifth (19 per cent) of their gross income.

Benefits were also a considerable source of income for the Black

group (15 per cent).

- In 2000/01 people from minority ethnic groups were more likely than

White people to live in low-income households in Great Britain.

Almost 60 per cent of the Pakistani/Bangladeshi group were living

in low-income households before housing costs were deducted. This

increased to 68 per cent after housing costs.

Education

- Indian girls and boys in England and Wales, were more likely to get

five or more GCSEs at grades A*-C than their White, Black,

Pakistani and Bangladeshi counterparts. Sixty-six per cent of

Indian girls and 54 per cent of Indian boys achieved this in 1999.

- In 2001/02, people from Chinese, Indian, Black African and Other

Asian groups were more likely to have degrees than White people in

the UK. Pakistanis and Bangladeshis were the most likely to be

unqualified.

Victims of crime

- In 1999 in England and Wales the risk of being the victim of a

racially motivated incident was considerably higher for members of

minority ethnic groups than for White people. The highest risk was

for Pakistani and Bangladeshi people at 4.2 per cent, followed by

3.6 per cent for Indian people and 2.2 per cent for Black people.

This compared with 0.3 per cent for White people.

Health

- In England, Asians were considerably more likely than the general

population to describe their health as bad or very bad in 1999.

After standardising for age, Pakistani/Bangladeshi men and women

were three to four times more likely than the general population to

rate their health in this way.

- In 1999 Bangladeshi men and women living in England were nearly six

times more likely than the general population to report having

diabetes after standardising for age. Risk ratios among Pakistani

men and women were almost as high as those for the Bangladeshi

group. Indian men and women were almost three times as likely as

the general population to report having diabetes.

Lifestyles

- In England in 1999, Bangladeshi men were the group most likely to

smoke cigarettes (44 per cent), followed by Irish (39 per cent) and

Black Caribbean men (35 per cent). Among women, Irish and Black

Caribbeans had the highest cigarette smoking rates, although only

Irish women (33 per cent) had rates higher than the general

population (27 per cent).

- In England in 1999, more than 34 per cent of Irish men and almost a

fifth of Irish women drank above 21 units of alcohol a week for men

and 14 units a week for women. All other minority ethnic groups

were less likely than the general population to drink above these

levels.

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. The Annual Local Area Labour Force Survey data presented here have

been weighted to be consistent with the best population estimates

available before the results of the 2001 Census were published. New

regional and local mid-year population estimates for 1992-2000, which

are consistent with the 2001 Census figures, will be published by ONS

in early spring 2003. When these data are available, a reweighting of

all the Labour Force Survey (LFS) series will be carried out. This

will be complete in autumn 2003. The data presented here will then be

replaced by final estimates which are consistent with the new

population estimates derived from 2001 Census.

2. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are

available from the press office.

3. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards

set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo

regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer

needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

POPULATION TRENDS 110 WINTER 2002

Coverage United Kingdom

Theme Population and Migration

Rising divorce has had little impact on the overall probability of

living with a partner in mid-life, that is between the ages of 45 and

64, according to an analysis of peoples' economic and social roles

published today in the Autumn issue of Population Trends Population Trends 110 (Winter 2002). The lower

likelihood of widowhood and higher remarriage rates have offset the

trend towards higher divorce.

In this issue, there are articles on: the research into improving the

way student age-groups are covered in the English subnational

population projections; the recent changes in economic and social

role occupancy across four birth cohorts passing through their

mid-life age period; and past trends in the provision of informal

care by children or children-in-law to their older parents or

parents-in-law.

Key new statistics in this issue are:

Mid-2001 population estimates for England and Wales

- The mid-2001 population of England and Wales was estimated at

52,084,500.

- Almost 10.5 million people, or 20 per cent of the total population,

were aged 0-15. Almost 10.9 million people (21 per cent) were aged

60 and over and over one million (2 per cent) were in the very

elderly age group of 85 and over.

Similar patterns were found for England and Wales separately, though

Wales did have a slightly older population (23 per cent of the total

population aged 60 and over).

- Among Government Office Regions for England, the South East

(8,006,900) had the largest population and the North East (2,516,

500) the smallest.

Divorces in England and Wales during 2001

- There were 144,000 divorces granted in 2001, a rise of 1.9 per cent

on the 2000 total; 69 per cent of these divorces were granted to

the wife. The provisional divorce rate increased to 13.0 people

divorcing per 1,000 married population from 12.7 in 2000.

- One out of every five men and women divorcing had been divorced

prior to marriage compared with only one in ten men and women in

1981.

- In 2001, 12 per cent fewer divorces were granted on the grounds of

behaviour than in 1991, though as a percentage of all grounds for

divorce the proportion remained similar at 45 and 46 per cent

respectively. There were nearly 27 per cent fewer divorces granted

on the grounds of adultery in 2001 than in 1991, but 17 per cent

more following separation.

- Divorce rates are higher for men and women aged between 20 and 34

than for other age groups. The highest were for men aged between 30

and 34 years (27.7 divorces per 1,000 married men in this age

group) and women aged between 20 and 24 years (29.5 divorces per

1,000 married women in this age group).

- The average (mean) age at divorce rose again, from 41.3 years for

men and 38.8 years for women in 2000 to 41.5 and 39.1 years

respectively. Between 1991 and 2001 there was a three year increase

in the average age at divorce; this corresponds to the increase in

the average age at marriage over the same period.

- Just over 55 per cent of couples (79,000) who divorced had at least

one child aged under 16 compared with almost 60 per cent of couples

who divorced in 1981.

This issue also contains a statistical commentary to accompany the

annual statistical reference volume Birth statistics, 2001, published

on 12 December 2002.

Summaries of the main articles are:

Modelling student age-groups in the subnational population

projections for England: an investigation into potential improvements

by Giles Horsfield and Jenny Wood, ONS.

This article describes research work by the ONS on improving

treatment of student age-groups in the English subnational population

projections. Students are a difficult group to cover in local

population projections. In general, they spend three years or so at a

higher education establishment before leaving, and these

establishments are located all over the country with great local

variations in numbers. Identifying the movement of students is

difficult because of the available data sources.

A number of data sources were investigated, with research focusing on

Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Although the coverage of

HESA data is not appropriate to enable student populations to be

projected separately, the data have been used to devise an adjustment

method for the student-age population.

Changing economic and social roles: the experience of four cohorts of

mid-life individuals in Britain, 1985-2000 by Maria Evandrou and

Karen Glaser, Institute of Gerontology, King's College, London.

Men and women in Great Britain are increasingly involved in a variety

of economic and social roles, particularly during their mid- life

period. This article examines the changes in role occupancy across

four birth cohorts passing through ages 45-64 over the period

1985-2000. Data from the General Household Survey is used to

investigate the occupancy of four key roles: 'partner', 'parent',

'carer' and 'paid worker', analysing separate and multiple role

occupancies and level of commitment to a particular role.

Some of the key findings include:

- Rising divorce has had little impact on the overall probability of

living in a union in mid-life, with around four out of five women

aged 55-59 in each birth cohort living with their spouse or

partner.

- A significantly lower proportion of successive cohorts are still

living with children of any age during mid-life. For example, at

age 50-54, 39 per cent of women born in 1941-45 are living with at

least one child compared with 44 per cent of those born in

1936-1940 and 51 per cent of women born in 1931-35.

- There has been a rise in the likelihood of caring in mid-life and

an intensification of that care. Among women aged 55-59, 28 per

cent of those born in 1941-45 were carers compared with 21 per cent

of the 1936-40 cohort and 19 per cent of the 1926- 30 cohort.

- Increasing proportions of women are working, and working full-time

in mid-life.

- Being 'caught in the middle', in terms of simultaneous care-giving

responsibilities to dependent children and frail parents while in

paid work, is an atypical experience. Only one in nine women, and

one in ten men, aged 45-49 occupy all three roles concurrently.

- The extent of multiple roles is increasing among younger cohorts,

particularly those roles that combine caring and paid work. For

example, 11 per cent of women born in 1941-45 were carers and paid

workers at ages 55-59 compared with 6 per cent of women from the

1926-30 cohort at the same age.

The decline of intensive intergenerational care of older people in

Great Britain, 1985-1995 by Linda Pickard, Department of Social

Policy, London School of Economics.

This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care

by children/children-in-law to their elderly parents/parents-in-law

(intergenerational) between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using

successive General Household Survey data. It looks at possible

factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes

and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.

Key findings include:

- Around two million children/children-in-law provide informal care

to older parents living in another household, a figure that

remained relatively stable between 1985-1995.

- However, there has been a change in the type of intergenerational

care provided, with a shift from co-resident (carer and care

receiver living in the same household) to extra-resident care

(carer and care receiver living in a different household). Between

1985 and 1995, co-resident carers of elderly parents/parents-in-law

declined by nearly 25 per cent from around 435,000 to around

335,000.

- In 1985, children/children-in-law constituted the largest group of

carers of older people within households. By 1995, spouses

constituted the largest group of co-resident carers. The number of

people caring for their spouses increased by around 45 per cent in

1985-1995.

- There was an increase in the number of intergenerational carers

providing care for 20 hours a week or more outside the household

between 1985-1995.

- However, there was a decline in the number of intergenerational

carers providing care for 50 hours a week or more between 1985 and

1995, associated with the decline in co-resident intergenerational

care.

- The number of women providing care for 50 hours a week or more to

an elderly parent/parent-in-law inside the household halved between

1985 and 1995.

- The rise in the number of married couples in the older population

explained some of the increase in 'spouse' care between 1985 and

1995, but much of the increase in 'spouse' care was explained by an

increased likelihood of spouses aged 75 and over providing care.

- Demographic changes relating to the supply of intergenerational

carers would have implied an increase in the provision of

co-resident intergenerational care, not a decline. An additional

explanation is, therefore, needed to account for the decline in

co-resident intergenerational care in 1985-1995, and it is

suggested that this decline may have been associated with the

expansion on institutional care during the late 1980s.