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ELECTIONS 2004: HOW LGC'S '20 COUNCILS TO WATCH' ARE FARING - ALL DECLARED

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Here's what Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of the LGC Elections Centre at Plymouth University said...
Here's what Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of the LGC Elections Centre at Plymouth University said, and results for ...

Pendle: 'Lib Dems need two gains to take control. Labour would lose both Vivary Bridge and Walverden on a 1% swing to the Lib Dems since 2002.'

Liberal Democrats gain from No Overall Control

Burnley: 'Once again the British National Party is likely to dominate attention. The party defends two seats from 2002 and won in six wards last year. Labour control would not survive a similar result this year.'

Labour loses to No Overall Control

Trafford: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. The Tories often poll more votes than Labour, but do less well in terms of seats. Tories will hope the new boundaries help them take control.'

Conservatives gain from No Overall Control

Amber Valley: 'A three-seat switch from Tories to Labour, on a less than 1% swing since 2000, would give Labour control. Labour won two of the key wards last year.'

Conservatives hold

Walsall: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. The Tories and Labour are neck and neck. Tories polled more votes in 2003 and may take control if they do so again. Council rated 'poor' by the Audit Commission in 2003.'

Conservatives gain from No Overall Control

Birmingham: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. Sixty-one seats are needed for control of this huge council. All parties likely to fall short of the target.'

Remains under No Overall Control

Coventry: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. Labour has fallen back badly in recent times and face a tough fight from the Conservatives to win most votes and seats. Council rated 'poor' by the Audit Commission in 2003.'

Remains under No Overall Control

Rhondda Cynon Taff: '1999 saw a dramatic PC putsch against Labour. PC will lose control on a 3% swing to Labour - Ton-Teg is the pivotal ward.'

Labour gains from Plaid Cymru

Cardiff: 'Lib Dems are Labour's main opponents. However, they will have more chance in the Cardiff Central parliamentary constituency than of winning control at City Hall.'

Labour lose to No Overall Control

Monmouthshire: 'Some boundary changes since last local elections. Tories and Labour each need three gains for overall control. Tories make it with a swing of 4% since 1999.'

Conservatives gain from No Overall Control

Newcastle upon Tyne: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. The Liberal Democrats alone compete with Labour here, and expect to make gains.'

Liberal Democrats gain from Labour

Harrogate: 'Lib Dems lost control in 2002 and Tories now poised to take over. Winning Lower Nidderdale (Lib Dem majority of just seven votes in 2002) could be enough.'

Conservatives hold

Leeds: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. New boundaries seem to offer more opportunities to the tories and will make it difficult for Labour toretain overall control.'

Labour loses to No Overall Control

Peterborough: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. Tories took control in 2002, but new boundaries will test their support following internal party wrangling and defections.'

Conservatives gain from No Overall Control

Norwich City: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. The dramatic Lib Dem victory of 2002 will now be put to the test on a council being reduced in size from 48 to 39 members.'

Liberal Democrats lose to No Overall Control

Crawley: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes. The only Labour council in West Sussex. Tories and Labour tied in votes but not seats in 2003.'

Labour holds

Eastbourne: 'A turnover of just one seat would pass the council from Lib Dem to Tories. The key ward is Old Town.'

Conservatives gain from Liberal Democrats

Reading: 'All-out elections following extensive boundary changes this year. Labour currently has a big majority, but Tories need to progress to show they could win back the town's two parliamentary seats.'

Labour hold

Swindon: 'Tories just short of an overall majority. A swing of 3% from Labour since 2002 in Dorcan and St Phillip will do the trick. Council rated 'poor' by the Audit Commission in 2003.'

Conservatives gain from No Overall Control

Winchester: 'Lib Dems may need to work hard to preserve their wafer thin majority. A 3% swing to the Tories would undo them.'

Liberal Democrats lose to No Overall Control

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