Liberal Democrats hung on in a marginal battle in this week’s only council by-election.
They won at Huntingdon North in Cambridgeshire’s Huntingdonshire District in a ward where the Tories had triumphed comfortably in the contest for another seat in May last year.
Despite their slip in support this week Conservatives ended the month well ahead.
Analysis of an unusually large sample of 27 comparable results in October gives them a 12.6% projected nationwide lead over Labour.
A calculation based on 17 wards fought both times by all three major parties gives a line-up of C 38.5%, Lab 26.9%, Lib Dem 24.6%.
Huntingdonshire District - Huntingdon North: Lib Dem 243, C 213, Ukip 167, Lab 123.
(May 2008 - C 473, Lib Dem 300, Lab 147, Ukip 83).
Lib Dem hold. Swing 10.6% C to Lib Dem.