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The impact of UK data released this week should be limited given that it refers to events in October and November. ...
The impact of UK data released this week should be limited given that it refers to events in October and November. The market will look instead to next week and the release of a number of important December figures for the labour market and inflation.

However there will be some interest generated in UK industrial production data released this Wednesday which is expected to show year on year growth remaining broadly unchanged in November.

The month on month increase is expected to be higher than in October due in part to a recovery in North Sea oil output.

Friday sees the release of UK Visible Trade data for October and the market expects this to stand at -£540m. The total trade deficit has been declining steadily throughout 1994 and export growth looks set to remain very strong into the future.

After increasing by around 8.5% last year, exports are expected to grow by similar amounts in 1995, as broad based European growth and a recovery in Japan add to still-strong demand growth in the US and the emerging markets.

In addition, gains in competitiveness following sterling's devaluation two years ago have been augmented by subdued price inflation domestically, allowing the UK to gain market share at home and abroad.

In the US attention will focus on producer price inflation released on Tuesday and consumer price inflation released on Wednesday. Producer prices have been volatile recently due partly to changes in energy prices, but also to higher car prices.

Consumer prices, however have been much more stable, with core prices ex food and energy remaining below 3% throughout 1994. The US will look closely at any signs of rising inflationary pressure in 1995.

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