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THE WEEK AHEAD

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In the UK, August's industrial production data will be scrutinised for any signs of recovery following July's slowd...
In the UK, August's industrial production data will be scrutinised for any signs of recovery following July's slowdown in which manufacturing output fell 0.4% m/m.

Recent weakness partly reflects much slower export growth, both to Europe and North America, in addition to a significant stock build-up as demand falls short of many companies expectations. Most economists expect industrial production to have remained subdued in August, following a gloomy CBI Industrial Trends Survey earlier this month.

Also at home, there will be interest in September's M0 data following recent concern about an acceleration of monetary aggregates, (especially M4), which has not been matched by a pick-up in economic activity. M0 growth has been above its monitoring range of 0-4% for the past two years, and although the authorities have downplayed the usefulness of monetary indicators they could be the prelude to more respectable growth in 1996 .

The recent strength of US data may continue in the coming week with the release on Monday of the September Purchasing Manager's survey, (NAPM).

The index is expected to bounce back from its August decline, mirroring the recent rebound in industrial production data. However, Friday's US labour market is expected to show only modest growth in non-farm payrolls after stronger than expected employment growth in August.
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